Meaning of the Term the Lindy Effect
The Lindy Effect is a theory that states that future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, is proportional to their age. In other words, the longer something has lasted, the longer it is likely to continue to last. It has proven a useful framework for evaluating the durability and life expectancy of e.g. a product, technology, idea or concept.
History
It was first coined by Albert Goldman in a 1964 article in The New Republic. Goldman was writing about the professional life expectancy of comedians, and he argued that the more exposure a comedian had to the public, the shorter their career would be. He called this phenomenon “Lindy’s Law,” after Lindy’s Deli in New York City, where many comedians would gather after their shows in the 1960s.
While author Albert Goldman used the term “Lindy’s Law” in the 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who shifted the dialogue towards the current definition. In his book, The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy’s comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make. In other words, the longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
Nassim Taleb built upon Mandelbrot’s work, formally coining the term “Lindy Effect” in his book, Antifragile. Taleb noted the Lindy Effect with books, the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive. With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play. “If a book has been in print for 40 years, I can expect it to be in print for another 40… if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another 50 years. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy.“
Examples
- A product that has been on the market for 10 years is more likely to be around for another 10 years than a product that has only been on the market for 1 year. This is because the 10-year-old product has already survived the initial challenges of market entry and competition, and it has built up a track record of success.
- An example of the Lindy Effect is the concept of open source software. Open source software is software that is developed and maintained by a community of users and developers. This model has been around for over 30 years, and it has proven to be very successful. Open source software is often more reliable and secure than proprietary software, and it is constantly being updated and improved. This is because the community of users and developers is constantly working to find and fix bugs, and to add new features.
- Shakespeare’s plays have been performed for over 400 years. It is likely that they will continue to be performed for many years to come.
- The Mona Lisa has been one of the most popular paintings in the world for centuries. It is unlikely that it will ever fall out of favor.
- The English language has been around for over 1 500 years. It is the most widely spoken language in the world, and it is likely to remain so for many years to come.
The Lindy Effect is a powerful tool for making certain non-perfect predictions and decisions about the future. By looking at the past, we can get a better idea of what the future holds. The longer something has survived, the more likely it is to continue to survive. This is a valuable insight that can be applied to a wide variety of things.
Some Practical Implications
The Lindy Effect can be a very useful framework for deconstructing and evaluating especially the survivability of new technologies and ideas. Most notably, Bitcoin (and web3/crypto in general) is often evaluated in the context of the Lindy Effect.
The Bitcoin Genesis Block was created in January 2009 and it has survived since. The fact that it has survived through multiple bull and bear markets, hacking and attempts to break the cryptography or architecture, and some vicious crashes, seems to indicate that it is fairly solid, robust and stable. Thus, that it is likely persist for some time ahead similar to what the Lindy Effect would suggest.
Furthermore, the Lindy Effect can be leveraged as a lens through which to decide what content and ideas you consume. Naval Ravikant and others advocate reading the classics. This is grounded in the Lindy Effect, focus on accumulating knowledge that will still be of significance and relevant in a hundred years from now.
Another consequence of of the Lindy Effect is that it underlines the importance of starting early, someone who started early would be more likely to persevere and thereby have higher likelihood the of increasing additional life expectancy. The importance of starting early captured well in the Matthew Effect, read more about it here.
Slideshow version of this article explaining the Lindy Effect
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